Friction-maxxing: the future of human-centred* design

Hi everyone,

Welcome to the foresight newsletter, where we talk about strategic foresight. This week? Well, I guess I better answer the question everybody asks me: what about artificial intelligence in foresight? I would rather pull out my own fingernails (even with a fresh manicure!) than do this, but hey: this is the world we live in. Alright, let’s get on with it.

But first, some housekeeping…

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The End of Human Research?

As a trained social scientist, I do find it hard to be in a world where no one really understands human research, much less qual methods for design. I trained deeply in interviewing, focus group moderation, and ethnographic observation. Listen, I know it’s insufferable. My whole family knows it’s insufferable, as shown in this actual meme by sister-in-law made of me in 2013. Believe me, I know.

But people who think AI Refuseniks are just zealots, Luddites, or just plain arrogant don’t understand the motivation of insisting on human research. I am not interested in semantics. I’m don’t even care about “being right.” I’m interested in good outcomes for individuals and society. That’s why the avalanche of automated human research has gotten me all hot and bothered.

Human-centred design and human research

Many people who work in design or product roles are familiar with the idea of "human-centred design" — which starts the design process with people and what they need. Everything else, like technical feasibility and marketing, come after a real human need has been solved. Those of us who work(ed) in Big Tech know all too well that this ideal is often just window dressing. We feel deep moral injury when the design process becomes less about humans and more about organizational siloes.

But now we are seeing even that window dressing coming apart at the seams through the use of so-called “synthetic users” or the use of large language models (LLMs) to simulate human responses to questions. Read this review and honestly assess if synthetic humans are good. Not convinced? Read this one then. There are more…and probably will be a mountain of them.

LLMs can mimic humans but they are not human. I can’t believe I have to say this. Refusing to skip the human part of human-centred design is Friction-Maxxing for design.

Choosing to Friction-Maxx

What is Friction-Maxxing? Can we just pause for a moment and be in love with this word? It’s a word you’d expect Sean Young to say off-handedly in a scene from Bladerunner (ironically, Sean Young herself was thrown out).

Writer and sociologist Kathryn Jezer-Morton coined Friction-Maxxing in The Cut magazine in January. It is the intentional rejection of convenience. It is choosing a Sony Walkman over your iPhone. It is choosing to bake your own bread instead of buying it. It is walking to the post office to mail a letter instead of dashing off a text. It is about choosing intentionally slower ways to do something because it yields human value. Convenience? Yeah, that’s a plague, according to AI boosters.

Friction-Maxx your foresight

You could say using AI to do design or foresight is just dumb: Why on earth would you use AI to predict a something that has not happened? Why would you use it to design something that does not exist? AI is basically just a giant correlation machine. This is what Critical Realists called out as the very arrogant (and very stupid) belief that past human behaviour* predicts all future human behaviour*. Humans are just not like that.

But worse, throwing out the humans when you do foresight or design or literally anything is morally wrong. We are not chemical compounds or mushrooms or even electrons. God, how disgusting to think this way! I’m with Pope Leo when he says:

“Embracing the opportunities offered by digital technology and artificial intelligence with courage, determination and discernment does not mean turning a blind eye to critical issues, complexities and risks”

Artificial intelligence should not be telling us what the future is. It’s bad at it in the first place, but it is also basically a gigantic sociopath. Designing futures with sociopathic principles sounds…bad, right?

Friction-Maxx for Humanity

If we accept that AI is here to stay, does that mean we must accept that everything we make must be fed into the sociopathic deflavourizing machine we call AI? No, there’s nothing inevitable about technological change in general and there’s nothing inevitable about AI. It’s a choice.

Another sociologist I have been writing about is Hartmutt Rosa (remember the “frenetic standstill”?) Kathryn Jezer-Morton specifically mentioned his work in a podcast interview where she talked about “un-engineerability” of the world. Rosa argues there are just some things that cannot be made convenient and many of these things are good for our society. Human-centred* research and design is one of those things.

Foresight, qualitative research, and human-centred design is all about making the world better for us, the humans. Actors, authors, artists, and even engineers are becoming AI Refuseniks. Use it, by all means (I do, but not for this newsletter!).

Do not forget that humans and human experiences matter. Let AI do all the math or the boring stuff, but don’t forget that we — all of us humans here on Planet Earth — need to show up for each other.

Take a stand and choose to use old-fashioned human work by:

• Choose to fight and you win

• Follow artists and see what crazy shit is happening in wild places

• Use human sources wherever possible to do your foresight work. Imagine with them.

• Refuse to use AI for key human tasks such as with art, writing, creative pursuits of all kinds. Pause when you make that decision. Savour your experience of being full human. Right here, in the real world.

*now that I’m back in Canada, I am absolutely delighted to torture Americans with British spelling. And torture Britons with Canadian spelling. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

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In case you missed it:

• What $100M Twins tell us about the future of work

• Hacking your organization’s attention budget

• Are you a fox of a hedgehog?

• Curating over counting: using weak signals

• What is a Black Elephant and why is it in this boardroom

• Basic research that is also useful: Pasteur’s Quadrant

• Why so many AI projects fail

• How to find more time without using technology

• Use Knowledge Maps in your organization

• Why quick wins never turn into long-term wins

• Introducing Stylized Facts: your tool for impactful research

• Critical thinking and AI

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